May Auto Sales Likely Curbed by Fewer Weekend Shopping Days
May 25, 2016 | By Business Wire News
SANTA MONICA, Calif.
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,569,538 units in May, down 4 percent from a year ago, restrained by one less weekend compared with the same month in 2015.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales in May is an estimated 17.8 million units, up from 17.7 million units a year ago. On a daily selling rate basis, overall sales expanded by 4 percent when adjusting for two fewer sales days versus May 2015. Excluding sales to daily rental, commercial and government fleets, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks will likely shrink 4.5 percent to 1,298,681 units.
“Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer selling season and we see consistent strength in demand, particularly for crossover utility vehicles and pickups,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s vice president of industry insights. “The industry is up against a tough comparison with May 2015 – with five weekends then versus four this year – but that doesn’t diminish the market’s underlying health.”
FCA may report a 1.2 percent increase, the month’s biggest year-over-year sales gain on the continued popularity of its Jeep and Ram light truck lines. Honda, Nissan and Subaru are all projected to be relatively flat, with sales down about 1 percent each. Ford is likely to report a 5 percent drop compared with a year ago, while GM and Toyota may both see declines of 7.9 percent.
In line with the overall market, volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely dip by 4.1 percent versus the year-ago month, and sales of luxury models may also shrink by 3.8 percent.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,034 per vehicle in May, up 7.1 percent from a year ago, but down 0.4 percent from April 2016.
“Incentives moderated a bit this month while consumers stay focused on higher-margin products,” Lyman said. “Along with this May’s abbreviated selling period, automakers have to adapt to weaker demand for midsize and small cars as relatively cheap gas entices more consumers to upgrade to crossovers and pickups.”
The Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged last month and overall U.S. economic conditions remain positive. April’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.0 percent, the lowest for the month in eight years, and gasoline prices are still favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $2.29 per gallon on May 24 from $2.738 a year earlier.
Other key findings for May:
- Registration mix is expected to be 82.7 percent retail sales and 17.3 percent fleet versus 83.2 percent retail and 16.8 percent fleet last May.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,181,877 units, up 2 percent from May 2015.
Table 1: Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume
| Manufacturer |
May 2016 |
May 2015 | Apr 2016 |
% Change vs. |
% Change vs. May |
|||||||||
| BMW | 34,566 | 36,908 | 29,826 | -6.3% | 1.5% | |||||||||
| Daimler | 31,767 | 33,187 | 32,291 | -4.3% | 3.7% | |||||||||
| FCA | 206,054 | 203,568 | 200,697 | 1.2% | 9.7% | |||||||||
| Ford | 237,484 | 250,086 | 229,739 | -5.0% | 2.9% | |||||||||
| GM | 269,868 | 293,097 | 259,557 | -7.9% | -0.3% | |||||||||
| Honda | 152,372 | 154,593 | 148,829 | -1.4% | 6.8% | |||||||||
| Hyundai | 62,978 | 63,610 | 62,213 | -1.0% | 7.3% | |||||||||
| Kia | 60,935 | 62,433 | 56,508 | -2.4% | 5.7% | |||||||||
| Nissan | 134,262 | 134,779 | 123,861 | -0.4% | 7.9% | |||||||||
| Subaru | 48,935 | 49,561 | 50,380 | -1.3% | 7.0% | |||||||||
| Toyota | 223,500 | 242,579 | 211,125 | -7.9% | -0.2% | |||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 52,594 | 57,790 | 50,522 | -9.0% | -1.4% | |||||||||
| Industry | 1,569,538 | 1,635,090 | 1,506,977 | -4.0% | 4.0% | |||||||||
Table 2: Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | May 2016 Forecast | May 2015 | Apr 2016 | ||||||
| BMW | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | ||||||
| Daimler | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||||||
| FCA | 13.1% | 12.4% | 13.3% | ||||||
| Ford | 15.1% | 15.3% | 15.2% | ||||||
| GM | 17.2% | 17.9% | 17.2% | ||||||
| Honda | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | ||||||
| Hyundai | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | ||||||
| Kia | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | ||||||
| Nissan | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | ||||||
| Subaru | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | ||||||
| Toyota | 14.2% | 14.8% | 14.0% | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | ||||||
Table 3: Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer |
May 2016 |
May 2015 | Apr 2016 |
% Change vs. |
% Change vs. |
|||||||||
| BMW | 33,427 | 36,157 | 28,830 | -7.6% | 0.2% | |||||||||
| Daimler | 29,714 | 31,539 | 30,062 | -5.8% | 2.1% | |||||||||
| FCA | 159,922 | 166,672 | 154,129 | -4.1% | 3.9% | |||||||||
| Ford | 161,484 | 170,808 | 152,248 | -5.5% | 2.4% | |||||||||
| GM | 214,868 | 220,231 | 198,463 | -2.4% | 5.7% | |||||||||
| Honda | 150,436 | 152,334 | 146,891 | -1.2% | 7.0% | |||||||||
| Hyundai | 48,718 | 52,624 | 46,861 | -7.4% | 0.3% | |||||||||
| Kia | 50,830 | 50,822 | 46,628 | 0.0% | 8.3% | |||||||||
| Nissan | 107,262 | 113,319 | 97,390 | -5.3% | 2.5% | |||||||||
| Subaru | 45,822 | 45,874 | 47,782 | -0.1% | 8.2% | |||||||||
| Toyota | 198,823 | 218,126 | 186,642 | -8.8% | -1.3% | |||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 48,853 | 52,959 | 46,347 | -7.8% | -0.1% | |||||||||
| Industry | 1,298,681 | 1,359,948 | 1,229,881 | -4.5% | 3.5% | |||||||||
Table 4: Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Incentive |
Total |
|||||||||||
| BMW | $4,978 | $4,565 | $5,290 | 9.0% | -5.9% | $171,707,338 | |||||||||||
| Daimler | $4,024 | $4,283 | $4,000 | -6.1% | 0.6% | $127,813,358 | |||||||||||
| FCA | $3,926 | $3,277 | $3,982 | 19.8% | -1.4% | $804,609,038 | |||||||||||
| Ford | $3,433 | $2,674 | $3,514 | 28.4% | -2.3% | $815,320,985 | |||||||||||
| GM | $3,941 | $3,766 | $4,012 | 4.7% | -1.8% | $1,063,644,940 | |||||||||||
| Honda | $1,635 | $1,939 | $1,604 | -15.7% | 1.9% | $249,064,276 | |||||||||||
| Hyundai | $2,032 | $2,330 | $2,008 | -12.8% | 1.2% | $127,940,407 | |||||||||||
| Kia | $2,715 | $2,724 | $2,722 | -0.3% | -0.2% | $165,463,033 | |||||||||||
| Nissan | $3,342 | $3,415 | $3,232 | -2.1% | 3.4% | $448,764,037 | |||||||||||
| Subaru | $612 | $751 | $595 | -18.5% | 2.8% | $29,939,793 | |||||||||||
| Toyota | $2,029 | $2,020 | $1,996 | 0.4% | 1.6% | $453,431,066 | |||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | $3,448 | $2,947 | $3,443 | 17.0% | 0.1% | $180,283,999 | |||||||||||
| Industry | $3,034 | $2,834 | $3,047 | 7.1% | -0.4% | $4,749,550,897 |
Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection or reflection of the company’s operations.
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam’s Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
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TrueCar, Inc.
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VCardenas@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com
