Survey reveals employers expect hiring climate to improve in fourth quarter
Toronto, ON -- Canadian employers expect a more optimistic hiring climate for the October to December period o...
Toronto, ON — Canadian employers expect a more optimistic hiring climate for the October to December period of 2009, according to the latest results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
With seasonal variations removed from the survey data, the Net Employment Outlook stands at 5%, indicating employers are forecasting a cautiously optimistic hiring environment in the fourth quarter. This forecast improves eight percentage points from the previous quarter when employers reported a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of minus 3%. However, the Outlook declines nine percentage points from the same time last year.
The survey of more than 1,900 Canadian employers reveals that 15% plan to increase their payrolls in the fourth quarter of 2009, while 11% anticipate cutbacks and 73% of employers expect to maintain their current staffing levels. One per cent are unsure of their hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter.
“This quarter’s Net Employment Outlook indicates that the sluggish hiring pace reported in the previous quarter is likely to improve in the fourth quarter of 2009, but it’s far off the pace we saw last year at this time,” says Byrne Luft, vice-president marketing, Manpower Canada. “Employers are telling us that they plan to hire, but in a very conservative manner.”
Of the 10 surveyed industry sectors, employers in both the construction sector and the finance, insurance and real estate sector report the most favourable forecasts for the October to December period of 2009, with Net Employment Outlooks of 10% once seasonal variations are removed from the data. Employers in the public administration sector are also cautiously optimistic for the upcoming quarter, reporting seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlooks of 9%.
Employers in the mining industry sector also are projecting a moderate hiring climate with a Net Employment Outlook of 9%. This is a 17 percentage point decrease from the same time last year. However, it is 11 percentage points stronger than the previous quarter.
Employers in the Manufacturing/Non-Durables sector expect a moderate hiring climate and report a Net Employment Outlook of 6%. This is an 18 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, however the fourth quarter forecast is on par with the Outlook reported at the same time last year.
In the Manufacturing/Durable Goods sector, employers anticipate a flat hiring climate with a Net Employment Outlook of minus 1%. The Outlook improves 19 percentage points from the previous quarter, but is 12 percentage points weaker when compared to the same time last year.
In the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector, employers expect conservative hiring activity in the fourth quarter reporting a Net Employment Outlook of 1%. This is a slight decline from the previous quarter when employers predicted a hiring climate of 2%. It is an 11 percentage point decrease from the Outlook reported during the same time last year.
“Regionally, employers in Western and Atlantic Canada are anticipating the most encouraging hiring environment,” adds Luft. “However, the raw survey data indicates that the Outlook is weaker in three of the four Canadian regions surveyed compared to three months ago, and only employers in Western Canada are reporting stronger hiring intentions for the coming quarter.
“The optimistic forecast for this region is being bolstered by positive hiring intentions in the construction, mining, finance, insurance & real estate, and services industry sectors.”
Meanwhile employers in Atlantic Canada report a fair hiring climate with Net Employment Outlook of 7%. With Net Employment Outlooks of 3% and 2% respectively, employers in Quebec and Ontario expect a mild hiring climate for the upcoming quarter.