U.S. manufacturing sees 3.9% boost in second quarter
Arlington, VA -- While there will likely be significant deceleration in U.S. manufacturing growth in 2007, the seco...
Arlington, VA — While there will likely be significant deceleration in U.S. manufacturing growth in 2007, the second quarter showed signs of resiliency, and 2008 looms as an improvement, according to the MAPI Quarterly Industrial Outlook (ER-637e), a report that analyzes 27 major industries.
Founded in 1933, the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPIs more than 500 corporate members are U.S.-based and international companies in manufacturing and related business services, including electronics, aerospace, automotive, telecommunications, computers, medical products, precision instruments, chemicals, energy, factory automation, and similar industries.
MAPI research and meeting activities primarily relate to management, economics, and law, with a focus on issues critical to overall economic growth, competitiveness, free trade, productivity growth, and excellence in corporate management.
According to MAPI’s latest outlook, manufacturing industrial production expanded at a 3.9% annual rate in second quarter 2007, far better than the weak 0.8% in the first quarter. For the year as a whole, though, the report predicts that manufacturing production growth will decelerate from the 4.7% recorded in 2006 to 2.0% growth in 2007, before rebounding to 2.9% growth in 2008.
“An improvement in manufacturers’ exports in most industries and the end of an inventory drawdown explains the bounce back in second quarter industrial activity,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., MAPI Chief Economist and author of the analysis. “Unfortunately, the manufacturing sector cannot completely shake off the depressing effect of the housing collapse and the downward drifting motor vehicles market. Furthermore, we no longer look to strong business investment to lead economic growth.”
In a signal that manufacturing continued to face headwinds in the first half of 2007, second quarter figures show that 14 of the 27 industries tracked in the report had inflation-adjusted new orders or production above the level of one year ago, down from 16 industries that reported growth in the previous quarter.
Six industries enjoyed strong double-digit year-over-year growth in the second quarter, including electrical equipment, and mining and oil and gas field equipment, each at 13%; and aerospace products and parts; communications equipment; industrial machinery; and private non-residential construction all grew by 12%.
Consumer-oriented industries remain the weakest industrial sector, with housing activity plummeting by 22% in second quarter 2007. In the equipment industry, construction machinery declined by 13%.
Meckstroth concludes that five industries are in the accelerating growth (recovery) phase of the business cycle; 11 are in the decelerating growth (expansion) phase; six industries appear to be in the accelerating decline (either early recession or mid-recession) phase; and five are in the decelerating decline (late recession or very mild recession) phase of the cycle.
The report also offers economic forecasts for 24 of the 27 industries for 2007 and 2008.
The MAPI forecast series predicts two industries will achieve double-digit growth in both 2007 and 2008 — mining and oil and gas field machinery, 12% in 2007 and 11% in 2008; and aerospace products and parts, with expected growth of 11% in each year. MAPI envisions two other industries to see double-digit growth in at least one of these years. Communications equipment should continue its strong showing in 2007, with anticipated growth of 14%, followed by an 8% advance in 2008. Electrical equipment is anticipated to grow by 12% this year but decline by 1% in 2008.
Three industries are forecast to have negative change in both 2007 and in 2008. Continuing its struggles, housing is likely to decline by 23% in 2007 and by 6% in 2008; in concert with the housing decline, the household appliance sector is anticipated to drop by 5% this year and by 6% in 2008; additionally, construction machinery could decline by 15% in 2007 and by 7% next year.