New economic index shows modest growth in 2014

Ottawa – The Composite Leading Index, a new economic indicator published for the first time on Jan. 31, 2014, by The Conference Board of Canada, shows that the Canadian economy will grow in the first half of 2014 – but only modestly.

The increase in the Index of 0.3% in December 2013 matched the gains made in both October and November. While this trend signifies that the economy is growing, the Index also projects that Canadian growth will not pick up the pace until later in the year.

The Composite Leading Index sums up the performance of 10 components that track the short-term course of the economy. The newest of the Conference Board’s macroeconomic indicators, it signals changes in the business cycle (periods of faster and slower economic growth) approximately six or seven months in the future.

“The modest gains in the index in recent months, combined with the uneven performance of individual components, suggest that the economy has not yet begun to feel the benefits of strengthening US demand,” said Philip Cross, author of the CLI for the Conference Board. The CLI will be published monthly by  the Board.