Paris, France – Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to signal improvements in growth in most major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with divergent patterns among large emerging economies.
The CLIs point to economic growth above trend in the United States and Japan, and to growth firming in the United Kingdom. The CLI for Canada indicates a positive change in momentum.
In the Euro Area as a whole, the CLI continues to indicate a gain in growth momentum. In Germany, the CLI points to growth firming. The CLI for Italy continues to signal a positive change in momentum. Also the CLI for France now more clearly points to a positive change in momentum.
The CLIs point to growth returning to trend in China, and to a tentative positive change in momentum in Russia. In Brazil and in India, the CLIs continue to signal growth below trend rates.