Chicago, Ill. – The fourth quarter 2016 Sales History & Outlook Report (SHOR) released by the Power Transmission Distributors Association (PTDA) shows power transmission/motion control (PT/MC) distributor sales declined 3.6 percent from the 3Q16 level, a typical decline for that time period. However, leading indicators for PT/MC products suggest sales will rise through 2017 and 2018 before declining in 2019 as the macro-economy heads into a mild recession.
The 1Q2017 PTDA Business Index supports this forecast for improvement as it climbed exponentially to 69.3, a significant improvement compared to last year’s first quarter reading of 46.9. The PTDA Business Index is also higher than the April 2017 PMI Index of 54.8.
Manufacturers reported a 70.2 reading in 1Q2017, up from 49.1 in 4Q2016 representing the largest quarter-to-quarter increase in the PTDA Business Index data history. Distributors also indicated a significantly higher reading of 68.2 in 1Q2017, up from a 47.0 reading in 4Q2016. PTDA members are benefiting from a general rise in U.S. corporate profits, capital expenditures and industrial utilization rates.
The PTDA Business Index is modeled after the widely respected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and tracks change in business activity, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and backlog in the PT/MC industry to arrive at an overall index. The entire 1Q2017 PTDA Business Index report is available through PTDA’s website at ptda.org/Index.
For more specifics on the forecast for power transmission/motion control sales through distribution as well as forecasts for manufacturer sales, visit ptda.org/SHOR.