Ottawa – British Columbia will be the only province expected to post growth of better than 3% over the next two years. According to The Conference Board of Canada’s latest Provincial Outlook, real GDP is forecast to grow 3.1% this year and 3.6% in 2016.
“The bright outlook for the province is largely thanks to the construction industry. A major investment in a LNG project could get underway if all conditions are met,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director, Provincial Forecast. “This would be a game changer for the province, providing a considerable boost to the economy.”
If all conditions are met and regulatory approval is granted, construction on the Petronas $36-billion liquefied natural gas terminal could start as early as 2016. This project is included in The Conference Board’s forecast.
Manitoba is expected to be among the top provincial performers in 2016 and 2017. The provincial economy is expected to post real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2016 and reach 3% in 2017.
Exports and business investment will help Ontario’s economy advance by an estimated 2.3% next year and another 2.1% in 2017.
Robust demand south of the border and a Canadian dollar that remains well below parity with its US counterpart will give a boost to Quebec’s exports. Following modest growth this year, Quebec’s economy is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2016 and another 2% in 2017.
Saskatchewan’s economy will recover from recession in 2016 thanks to a rebound in non-residential construction. The province’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract by 1.1% this year before advancing by 2% in 2016.
While Alberta could not avoid a recession this year, a modest recovery is in the cards for 2016. Following a drop 1.2% this year, real GDP growth of 1.2% is forecast for the province in 2016.
There is a wide divergence among the Atlantic provinces’ economic performances next year. In 2016, real GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in Nova Scotia, 1.6% in Prince Edward Island, and 1.6% in New Brunswick. While, Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy is expected to shrink by 0.8% in 2016 as a result of low oil and mineral prices.